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Send  Share  RSS  Twitter  18 Oct 2016

ECONOMY: Economics Weekly Highlights

 





Recent Gauteng Business News

·SA: The quarterly employment survey revealed that activity in the labour market remains weak. The economy shed 67,000 jobs, which translated into a 0.7% q/q contraction of the employment rate.
·SSA: Mozambique headline inflation soared to 24.9% y/y in September from 22% in August. Headline inflation in Ghana also disappointed, rising 17.2% y/y in September from 16.9% in August.
·Global: US nonfarm payroll employment decelerated for the third consecutive month only adding 156,000 jobs in September, compared to August’s 167,000 jobs. Eurozone industrial production surged 1.6% m/m in August from a contraction of 0.7% in July. China's September CPI and PPI rebounded to 1.9% y/y and 0.1% respectively.

The week ahead
Local / CPI back above the SARB’s target

The September inflation print, based on our estimates, should show a reacceleration of headline inflation to 6.3% y/y, following the slight reprieve experienced in August. While food inflation remains the dominant driver of the headline figure survey items (Actual rentals for housing, owners’ equivalent rent, domestic worker wages, transport and motor vehicle insurance) should have also contributed to the higher inflation rate. We, however, expect the mild drop in petrol prices to have limited the upward
trajectory in the inflation rate. August retail sales should have continued to moderate - we would not be surprised by a mild contraction. Weak credit appetite, muted employment growth, weak disposable income growth and higher debt service
costs should have contribute to the deceleration in retail sales. Statistics of civil cases for debt, wholesale trade
sales, motor trade sales will also be released during the course of the week.


 
 
 
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