BUSINESS: Full Truck Market Recovery Only in 2010
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The sales achieved by the South African Market for Commercial Vehicles over 3 500 kg Gross Vehicle Mass during the month of November, 2009, ended lower than the it did last in October.
The total retail volume of 1 494 units reported to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), was 72 units less than the final audited total of 1 566 units sold in October, 2009, leaving the most realistic outlook for the market over the whole of 2009 at slightly more than 18 500 units.
That positions this year almost exactly midway between the 2003 result of 16 327 units, and the 2004 total of 20 814 units.
Casper Kruger, General Manager of Hino in South Africa, comments: "Given the general sideways movement currently being experienced in the local economy, it would be unrealistic to expect truck, bus and van sales to stage any major turnaround in the final two months of the year.
"Consequently, our rational expectation is that December will end some 25% below the November volume, recognising the reduced number of business days in the last month of the year, and that the final market total for 2009 will end at around 18 500 units."
Kruger concludes "Early expectations are that total 2010 sales volumes of trucks, buses and vans could be as high as 20% better than the level experienced in 2009. Emphasis within the macro economy is expected to remain firmly focussed on fixed investment-linked activities, suggesting a positive environment for XHCV sales, but the demands of service provision for SWC 2010 events may lead to increased short-term bursts of demand for the MCV and HCV units optimised for distribution activities.
"Bus sales volumes are also expected to benefit from the execution of firm orders already placed for the support of Bus Rapid Transit, Gautrain and SWC 2010 people movement requirements, although these are likely to be delivered in several clearly-defined batches, some of which will be shipped in from overseas sources.
"The general outlook for 2010 is, therefore, for improved overall market conditions, but subject to a similar pattern of short-term distortions caused by individual multi-unit deals, like those experienced in 2009".
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